Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Pre-Florida, predicting the GOP's future '08

I wanted to take the time, as we now approach the narrowing of the field, to address the matter of the future of the Republican Party. The USA Today had an interesting article which hadn't really dawned on me all that much, but the fact of the matter is that the President dictates policy, whomever a party nominates is the standard bearer of the party, and therefor dictates its policy. Now..this is irrelevant if that standard bearer loses, IE John Kerry, but if that nominee wins he can completely reshape his party(IE Bush).

For the Democrats, as much as Obama likes to pretend he's change the fact is he's pretty much on par with the party establishment's platform, Obama won't be any different than Hillary. There, I said it, are you happy?




The Republicans..however...are essentially choosing between different wings of their party:

John McCain- McCain represents a wing of the party which isn't very concerned with domestic affairs. People in his line of thinking have a tendency to be more liberal on social issues but they're able to balance it with tough foreign policy stances and in general hawkish views. McCain is the only candidate in the entire field that is pro-war. If elected he will most likely knock social issues out of the forefront, you won't see a debate between McCain and the DNC nominee about Abortion or gay marriage, because the fact is they'll agree on it, but by god don't let them get started on Iran! A McCain GOP will see an end to the party's tradition of dove policies, that Bush helped break down. McCain would be to 08 what Humphrey was to 68, if Humphrey had Kennedy's appeal, minus the bullet wound.

Rudy Guiliani- My original favorite, whom I am now more fond of referencing in the phrase 'Fulfill the prophecy! Elect Rudy!', that being the simple matter is that Rudy represents the wing of the party which has a great fondness for the rod. If McCain is a hawk, Rudy is a B-52. The man is running on 9/11 and the fact that he would love to bomb something to hell, and he'd like you to elect him so he can do that. I like Rudy for the fact that despite all his faults, he IS a liberal Republican, but the primary fault he has is the fact that he'll end the world. I'm keen on the world, I'd like it to last a little while longer.

Mike Huckabee- Huckabee, for all his wit, charm, and Kevin Spacey look-alike contest trophies, is unarguably the embodiment of my own disillusionment with the GOP. What's wrong with the GOP of today is that it's abandoned it's ways of small government in order to embrace a bizzare tight-rope act of being big government on one hand and small government on the other. This is an act that Reagan started and every president since has followed through with. The fact of the matter is this, whether you like it or not: Banning abortion is BIG government, censoring crude material is BIG government, banning gay marriage or in any way legislating it at all is BIG government. Social issues in general lead to big government if they are dealt with, small government advocates leaving them the fuck alone so SOCIETY can sort them out. Huckabee, if elected, would lead the GOP down a path I certainly wouldn't follow. He has a bad record on taxes in Arkansas, and while I DO like his plan to abolish the income tax and replace it with a sales tax...he's not reliable on taxes. A Huckabee GOP would see a closer shift towards the evangelical wing of the party, that advocates higher spending and a more close-minded educational view. He'd be a good health and human resources secretary..no more, no less.

Ron Paul- My hero. Whether you like him or not, whether you agree with him or not, Ron Paul is the embodiment of what the GOP was founded on, his platform is the old GOP platform, and by god I love him for it. If elected, we would see the GOP take on a more liberal turn towards the days of Nixon and Ford, before Reagan had to go and confuse everyone.

Mitt Romney- Status Quo. This guy is pretty much the Average Joe. He's your regular run of the mill Republican. He's from a political dynasty in a traditionally Republican state, he's a businessman who can finance his own campaign, and he flip flops on the issues depending on who he has to cater to for votes. Yep, average. He appeals mostly to the fiscal conservative base of the party, the ones that acknowledge that Ron Paul is entirely too psychotic to be president, but who don't trust Rudy or John enough on fiscal matters, and also don't believe that Mormons are a cult(IE Huckabee supporters). However, his Mormon ways are confusing and I don't understand them, therefor I can only assume he'll send us all to hell.



Here's some minor extra points:

1-Leaders of the major Evangelical movements have suggested that if someone like McCain or Rudy were nominated they would seek to set up an alternative pro-life third party candidate, essentially guaranteeing a Democratic victory because in 08 being Pro-Choice is like being in favor of equality in 68 -_-

2-Mayor Bloomberg of NYC has threatened several times that if a status quo candidate is elected in both parties, he will run on his own third party bid. Fact of the matter is Hillary and Obama are status quo, and so is Romney. Oh shit?

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